Analytical framework to evaluate and optimize the use of imperfect diagnostics to inform outbreak response: Application to the 2017 plague epidemic in Madagascar

• Quirine ten Bosch ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft

  * E-mail: quirine.tenbosch@wur.nl

  Affiliations Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, F-75015 Paris, France, Quantitative Veterinary Epidemiology, Department of Animal Sciences, Wageningen University and Research, Wageningen, the Netherlands

  https://orcid.org/0000-0002-5227-1406

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• Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Data curation, Investigation, Project administration, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Beza Ramasindrazana ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Investigation, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Guillain Mikaty,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Environment and Infectious Risks Research Unit, Laboratory for Urgent Response to Biological Threats (ERI-CIBU), Institut Pasteur, Paris, France

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• Rado J. L. Rakotonanahary,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Birgit Nikolay,

  Roles Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, F-75015 Paris, France

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• Soloandry Rahajandraibe,

  Roles Data curation, Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Maxence Feher,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Environment and Infectious Risks Research Unit, Laboratory for Urgent Response to Biological Threats (ERI-CIBU), Institut Pasteur, Paris, France

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• Quentin Grassin,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Environment and Infectious Risks Research Unit, Laboratory for Urgent Response to Biological Threats (ERI-CIBU), Institut Pasteur, Paris, France

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• Juliette Paireau,

  Roles Conceptualization, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, F-75015 Paris, France

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• Soanandrasana Rahelinirina,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Rindra Randremanana,

  Roles Data curation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo Madagascar

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• Feno Rakotoarimanana,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo Madagascar

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• Marie Melocco,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo Madagascar

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• Voahangy Rasolofo,

  Roles Project administration, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation Direction, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Javier Pizarro-Cerdá,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Yersinia Research Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 6047, F-75015 Paris, France, National Reference Laboratory for Plague and other Yersiniosis, Institut Pasteur, F-75015 Paris, France, World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Plague FRA-140, Institut Pasteur, F-75015 Paris, France

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• Anne-Sophie Le Guern,

  Roles Investigation, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Yersinia Research Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR 6047, F-75015 Paris, France, National Reference Laboratory for Plague and other Yersiniosis, Institut Pasteur, F-75015 Paris, France, World Health Organization Collaborating Center for Plague FRA-140, Institut Pasteur, F-75015 Paris, France

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• Eric Bertherat,

  Roles Project administration, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliation World Health Organization, Health Emergency Programme, Department of Infectious Hazard Management, Geneva, Switzerland

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• Maherisoa Ratsitorahina,

  Roles Project administration, Writing – review & editing

  Affiliations Direction, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar, Directorate of Health and Epidemiological Surveillance, Ministry of Public Health, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• André Spiegel,

  Roles Project administration, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Direction, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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• Laurence Baril ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Project administration, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Epidemiology and Clinical Research Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo Madagascar

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• Minoarisoa Rajerison ,

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Conceptualization, Data curation, Investigation, Project administration, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Plague Unit, Institut Pasteur de Madagascar, Antananarivo, Madagascar

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•  [ ... ],
• Simon Cauchemez

  Contributed equally to this work with: Quirine ten Bosch, Voahangy Andrianaivoarimanana, Beza Ramasindrazana, Laurence Baril, Minoarisoa Rajerison, Simon Cauchemez

  Roles Conceptualization, Formal analysis, Methodology, Writing – original draft

  Affiliation Mathematical Modelling of Infectious Diseases Unit, Institut Pasteur, Université Paris Cité, CNRS UMR2000, F-75015 Paris, France

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