Figure 1.
Temporal variation in spring temperature (A), flowering date in the vineyards of the Champagne region (B), the observed population mean of the mismatch between flowering date and median parturition date (C), and mean individual fitness predicted from the IPM (D) in the roe deer population of Trois Fontaines, France from 1985 to 2011.
The mismatch was estimated as the difference between median birth date and annual flowering date in the Champagne vineyards. We standardized this measure (by subtracting the observed value of the mismatch in the first year of study (1985) from this variable) to obtain a relative measure of mismatch ranging from 0 in 1985 to 36 d in 2011. Predicted trends are presented as black lines with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines). Geometric means of mean individual fitness were calculated over periods of 4 y (black squares).
Figure 2.
Variation in mean cohort-specific early survival in relation to the mismatch between annual median birth date and vegetation phenology in the roe deer population of Trois Fontaines, France.
The predicted relationship is represented by a black line with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines). Data used to fit the models are represented by black squares whose size is proportional to the standard error of mean cohort-specific early survival.
Figure 3.
Influence of the mismatch (measured as the difference in days between individual birth date and flowering date in Champagne) on individual early survival in the roe deer population of Trois Fontaines, France.
The predicted values are presented after back-transformation from a logit scale with 95% confidence intervals (dashed lines). Data used to fit the model are represented by black squares whose size is proportional to the number of observed births within periods of 2.5 d (examples in the figures: 1 (in white), 82 fawns; 2 (in white), 115 fawns).