Table 1.
Site-specific invariant parameters of host and vector species, seasonal birth rates (range), and site characteristics.
Fig 1.
Map location of study sites, showing Darwin from a tropical region, Brisbane from a sub-tropical region, and Mandurah, Mildura, Gippsland, Renmark, Murray Bridge, and Coorong from a Mediterranean region.
The basemap data were collected from the Australian Bureau of Statistics (‘States and Territories—2021 –Shapefile’, https://www.abs.gov.au/statistics/standards/australian-statistical-geography-standard-asgs-edition-3/jul2021-jun2026/access-and-downloads/digital-boundary-files).
Table 2.
Invariant population parameters shared across sites of host and vector species recovery rate of infection, general mortality rates, and vertical transmission of RRV in vector populations.
Table 3.
Transmission scenarios model combinations for explaining RRV transmission across epidemic centres in Australia.
Fig 2.
Per capita (100,000 people) RRV notifications over time for Darwin, Brisbane, Mandurah, and Mildura showing the recorded data (grey) and weighted model averages from the models (red) (Table 3).
Fig 3.
Per capita (100,000 people) RRV notifications over time for Coorong, Murray Bridge, and Renmark, showing the recorded data (grey) and weighted model averages from the models (red) (Table 3).
Table 4.
Delta AIC rankings of the importance of vector, host and transmission parameters explored in mechanistic model combinations (Scenarios as outlined in Table 3) fitted to RRV notifications.
Where, βvi the transmission rate from vectors to host species i; ρϑ the phase and amplitude of seasonal transmission; ωi host recrudescence of host species i; v primary vector population; and v2 secondary vector population. Host and vector species i are defined as kangaroos/wallabies, k; possums, p; and humans, h. Best fitting models (ΔAIC < 4) are in bold, with the most likely model fit having a ΔAIC = 0.
Table 5.
Capacity of the mechanistic models to qualitatively capture the dynamics of human RRV incidence.
PVO is the positive validated outbreak; and NVO is the negative validated outbreak.
Table 6.
Weighted model average parameter estimates of vector, host, and transmission parameters explored in mechanistic model combinations fitted to RRV notifications.
Where, βvi the transmission rate from vectors to host species i; ωi rate of recrudescence in host species i; ϵμ the seasonal phase of transmission; σφ the amplitude of seasonal transmission; v1min minimum mean estimated vector population in proportion to the maximum observed vector population per mosquito monitoring trap per week; v1max estimated maximum mean vector population per mosquito monitoring trap per week; and v2 estimated mean secondary vector population per mosquito monitoring trap per week, βr the false-negative reporting rate (number of unreported infections per one notification), and αr the false-positive reporting rate (number of false infections reported per one notification). Host and vector species i are defined as kangaroos/wallabies, k; possums, p; and humans, h.