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COVID-19 virtual patient cohort suggests immune mechanisms driving disease outcomes

Fig 4

Predicting mild and severe COVID-19 dynamics.

Mild disease (solid lines) dynamics obtained by using baseline parameter estimates (S1 Table) while severe disease dynamics (dashed lines) were obtained by decreasing the production rate of type I IFN (P_F,I) and increasing the production of monocytes (p_M,I) and their differentiation to macrophages (). A) Viral load and lung cells concentrations (susceptible, resistant, infected, and dead cells). Solid black line with error bars indicates human data [50] (see Fig 2). B) Immune cell concentrations (inflammatory macrophages, monocytes, neutrophils, and CD8⁺ T cells). C) Unbound cytokine concentrations (free IL-6, GM-CSF, G-CSF, and type I IFN). Time evolution of all model variables is shown in S8 Fig (including bound cytokine and alveolar macrophages).

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.ppat.1009753.g004