Predicting HIV-1 transmission and antibody neutralization efficacy in vivo from stoichiometric parameters
Fig 5
Antibody neutralization and host infection in macaque passive immunization challenge studies.
(A) Scheme depicting our approach of post-hoc analysis of macaque passive nAb immunization vaginal virus challenge studies. The approach delivers both estimates of in vivo virus inoculum neutralization and the probability of each infectious virion to start a host infection. (B) Total number of SHIV-P3 virions remaining infectious in the four analysed studies, obtained by multiplying the study-specific SHIV-P3 virus inoculum sizes with the fraction of virions remaining non-neutralized by nAbs. Bars depict the lowest, mean and highest number of potentially infectious virions, based on different assumptions of nAb KD and mucosal nAb concentration (see S14 Fig). (C) Estimates for the probability that a single infectious virion starts a host infection, ψ, shown for each of the four individual macaque studies. The different symbols and bars depict the lowest, mean and highest values of ψ, based on the different estimates for the number of potentially infectious virions as shown in (B). For this analysis, only immunization and challenge regimes resulting in infection of test animals were considered. The average value of ψ (1.65x10-5) across all studies is indicated.