Dear Professor McCaw,

Thank you very much for submitting your manuscript "How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918-19?" for consideration at PLOS Computational Biology.

As with all papers reviewed by the journal, your manuscript was reviewed by members of the editorial board and by several independent reviewers. In light of the reviews (below this email), we would like to invite the resubmission of a significantly-revised version that takes into account the reviewers' comments.

In particular, please pay attention to Reviewer 1's first comment about the unclear motivation for the study, as well as two of the reviewers' comments about the over-complexity of the model and potential issues with identifiability.

We cannot make any decision about publication until we have seen the revised manuscript and your response to the reviewers' comments. Your revised manuscript is also likely to be sent to reviewers for further evaluation.

When you are ready to resubmit, please upload the following:

[1] A letter containing a detailed list of your responses to the review comments and a description of the changes you have made in the manuscript. Please note while forming your response, if your article is accepted, you may have the opportunity to make the peer review history publicly available. The record will include editor decision letters (with reviews) and your responses to reviewer comments. If eligible, we will contact you to opt in or out.

[2] Two versions of the revised manuscript: one with either highlights or tracked changes denoting where the text has been changed; the other a clean version (uploaded as the manuscript file).

Important additional instructions are given below your reviewer comments.

Please prepare and submit your revised manuscript within 60 days. If you anticipate any delay, please let us know the expected resubmission date by replying to this email. Please note that revised manuscripts received after the 60-day due date may require evaluation and peer review similar to newly submitted manuscripts.

Thank you again for your submission. We hope that our editorial process has been constructive so far, and we welcome your feedback at any time. Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.

Sincerely,

Virginia E. Pitzer, Sc.D.

Section Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

Virginia Pitzer

Section Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

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In particular, please pay attention to Reviewer 1's first comment about the unclear motivation for the study, as well as two of the reviewers' comments about the over-complexity of the model and potential issues with identifiability.

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Authors:

Please note here if the review is uploaded as an attachment.

Reviewer #1: Please see attachment.

Reviewer #2: Thank you for the opportunity to review this manuscript. This manuscript looks at four outbreaks of Spanish flu on ships that were returning to Australia from WWI in 1918. The analysis estimates transmission rates amongst those on board and looks at whether maritime quarantine, implemented at that time, was effective (e.g. removing infectious, convalescent, healthy after arrival at quarantine station).

This manuscript is well written, the paper has a sensible and logical flow, the methods are reproducible, and conclusions follow from results. This work would be of interest to the epidemiological modelling readership and perhaps beyond given this is an interesting case study of historical data and deploys hierarchical ABC for parameter estimation. This was a pleasure to read and I have very few comments - I recommend this manuscript for publication as it has been submitted.

Some minor comments are below - I would suggest these minor changes to help the reader but I leave their inclusion to the authors’ discretion.

– Minor comments –

* Line 194: “rates of transmission between asymptomatic (βijA) and symptomatic infectious (βijI) are the same” -> perhaps rephrase to use “from” instead of ”between” since the transmission is between these and the susceptible class.

* Line 210: “sample paths” and “simulated paths” are used (L234) - consider aligning language throughout.

* Figure 7 : “qurantine” station

* Introduction: We demonstrated that generally, in the ships that transported troops, the transmission rates within crew and passengers were higher than those between the crew and passengers. -> suggest specifying “passengers (civilians and troops)”, otherwise it is lost on a reader how troops factor into the statement.

* Acknowledgements: please clarify “across 32 clusters”

* References: Several references need proper nouns capitalised (e.g. “Western Samoa”, “Spain”, etc).

* S2.1: 10. R_i = Recovered state of asymptomatic individuals. (I believe this is symptomatic individuals)

* S1: Can the perturbation kernel for the ship-specific ABCs be specified explicitly?

* S1: How were the tolerance values for the summary statistics determined?

* Code: I would suggest consolidating descriptions of the contents of each folder in the repo to all be in the main README file instead of distributed throughout the different folders.

* Code: I would suggest having a short description of how another researcher should run the code (i.e. very briefly state first, second, third steps; I believe all analyses are intended to be called from their respective folders).

* Code: It seems that all data necessary for reproducing the analysis is provided in the repository - it is worth stating this explicitly.

Reviewer #3: Uploaded as attachment.

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Have the authors made all data and (if applicable) computational code underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data and code underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data and code should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data or code —e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #2: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

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PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #2: No

Reviewer #3: No

Figure Files:

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email us at figures@plos.org.

Data Requirements:

Please note that, as a condition of publication, PLOS' data policy requires that you make available all data used to draw the conclusions outlined in your manuscript. Data must be deposited in an appropriate repository, included within the body of the manuscript, or uploaded as supporting information. This includes all numerical values that were used to generate graphs, histograms etc.. For an example in PLOS Biology see here: http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1001908#s5.

Reproducibility:

To enhance the reproducibility of your results, we recommend that you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io, where a protocol can be assigned its own identifier (DOI) such that it can be cited independently in the future. Additionally, PLOS ONE offers an option to publish peer-reviewed clinical study protocols. Read more information on sharing protocols at https://plos.org/protocols?utm_medium=editorial-email&utm_source=authorletters&utm_campaign=protocols

Attachments

Attachment

Submitted filename: Alahakoon et al. - review.pdf

Attachment

Submitted filename: PCOMPBIOL-D-23-00364-Review.docx

Dear Professor McCaw,

Thank you very much for submitting your manuscript "How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918-19?" for consideration at PLOS Computational Biology. As with all papers reviewed by the journal, your manuscript was reviewed by members of the editorial board and by several independent reviewers. The reviewers appreciated the attention to an important topic. Based on the reviews, we are likely to accept this manuscript for publication, providing that you modify the manuscript according to the review recommendations.

Please address the remaining minor comments raised by reviewer 3.

Please prepare and submit your revised manuscript within 30 days. If you anticipate any delay, please let us know the expected resubmission date by replying to this email.

When you are ready to resubmit, please upload the following:

[1] A letter containing a detailed list of your responses to all review comments, and a description of the changes you have made in the manuscript. Please note while forming your response, if your article is accepted, you may have the opportunity to make the peer review history publicly available. The record will include editor decision letters (with reviews) and your responses to reviewer comments. If eligible, we will contact you to opt in or out

[2] Two versions of the revised manuscript: one with either highlights or tracked changes denoting where the text has been changed; the other a clean version (uploaded as the manuscript file).

Important additional instructions are given below your reviewer comments.

Thank you again for your submission to our journal. We hope that our editorial process has been constructive so far, and we welcome your feedback at any time. Please don't hesitate to contact us if you have any questions or comments.

Sincerely,

Claudio José Struchiner, M.D., Sc.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

Virginia Pitzer

Section Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

***********************

A link appears below if there are any accompanying review attachments. If you believe any reviews to be missing, please contact ploscompbiol@plos.org immediately:

Please address the remaining minor comments raised by reviewer 3.

Reviewer's Responses to Questions

Comments to the Authors:

Please note here if the review is uploaded as an attachment.

Reviewer #1: Thank you for your thoughtful responses. I have no further comments.

Reviewer #3: Thank you for (most of) the revisions/clarifications, they were indeed helpful since last reading this manuscript.

The remaining clarifications/edits are included for your consideration.

**********

Have the authors made all data and (if applicable) computational code underlying the findings in their manuscript fully available?

The PLOS Data policy requires authors to make all data and code underlying the findings described in their manuscript fully available without restriction, with rare exception (please refer to the Data Availability Statement in the manuscript PDF file). The data and code should be provided as part of the manuscript or its supporting information, or deposited to a public repository. For example, in addition to summary statistics, the data points behind means, medians and variance measures should be available. If there are restrictions on publicly sharing data or code —e.g. participant privacy or use of data from a third party—those must be specified.

Reviewer #1: Yes

Reviewer #3: Yes

**********

PLOS authors have the option to publish the peer review history of their article (what does this mean?). If published, this will include your full peer review and any attached files.

If you choose “no”, your identity will remain anonymous but your review may still be made public.

Do you want your identity to be public for this peer review? For information about this choice, including consent withdrawal, please see our Privacy Policy.

Reviewer #1: No

Reviewer #3: No

Figure Files:

While revising your submission, please upload your figure files to the Preflight Analysis and Conversion Engine (PACE) digital diagnostic tool, https://pacev2.apexcovantage.com. PACE helps ensure that figures meet PLOS requirements. To use PACE, you must first register as a user. Then, login and navigate to the UPLOAD tab, where you will find detailed instructions on how to use the tool. If you encounter any issues or have any questions when using PACE, please email us at figures@plos.org.

Data Requirements:

Please note that, as a condition of publication, PLOS' data policy requires that you make available all data used to draw the conclusions outlined in your manuscript. Data must be deposited in an appropriate repository, included within the body of the manuscript, or uploaded as supporting information. This includes all numerical values that were used to generate graphs, histograms etc.. For an example in PLOS Biology see here: http://www.plosbiology.org/article/info%3Adoi%2F10.1371%2Fjournal.pbio.1001908#s5.

Reproducibility:

To enhance the reproducibility of your results, we recommend that you deposit your laboratory protocols in protocols.io, where a protocol can be assigned its own identifier (DOI) such that it can be cited independently in the future. Additionally, PLOS ONE offers an option to publish peer-reviewed clinical study protocols. Read more information on sharing protocols at https://plos.org/protocols?utm_medium=editorial-email&utm_source=authorletters&utm_campaign=protocols

References:

Review your reference list to ensure that it is complete and correct. If you have cited papers that have been retracted, please include the rationale for doing so in the manuscript text, or remove these references and replace them with relevant current references. Any changes to the reference list should be mentioned in the rebuttal letter that accompanies your revised manuscript.

If you need to cite a retracted article, indicate the article’s retracted status in the References list and also include a citation and full reference for the retraction notice.

Attachments

Attachment

Submitted filename: PCOMPBIOL-D-23-00364-Review_Resubmission.docx

Dear Professor McCaw,

We are pleased to inform you that your manuscript 'How effective were Australian Quarantine Stations in mitigating transmission aboard ships during the influenza pandemic of 1918-19?' has been provisionally accepted for publication in PLOS Computational Biology.

Before your manuscript can be formally accepted you will need to complete some formatting changes, which you will receive in a follow up email. A member of our team will be in touch with a set of requests.

Please note that your manuscript will not be scheduled for publication until you have made the required changes, so a swift response is appreciated.

IMPORTANT: The editorial review process is now complete. PLOS will only permit corrections to spelling, formatting or significant scientific errors from this point onwards. Requests for major changes, or any which affect the scientific understanding of your work, will cause delays to the publication date of your manuscript.

Should you, your institution's press office or the journal office choose to press release your paper, you will automatically be opted out of early publication. We ask that you notify us now if you or your institution is planning to press release the article. All press must be co-ordinated with PLOS.

Thank you again for supporting Open Access publishing; we are looking forward to publishing your work in PLOS Computational Biology. 

Best regards,

Claudio José Struchiner, M.D., Sc.D.

Academic Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

Virginia Pitzer

Section Editor

PLOS Computational Biology

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