Fig 1.
Movements of individuals (non-HCWs and HCWs) between the community, quarantine and usual hospitals.
Fig 2.
Epidemic curves comparing the reference (grey) and quarantine (blue) strategies.
Predicted changes over 365 days in the median and 95% prediction band of the percentage of infectious individuals (I and A compartments) amongst a) non-healthcare workers and b) healthcare workers. Attack rate in c) non-healthcare workers and d) healthcare workers.
Fig 3.
Distribution of SARS-CoV-2 acquisition routes over time for non-HCW infections in the community, comparing the reference (left) and the quarantine hospital (right) strategies.
Time changes in the daily median proportion of new infections is depicted over 365 days (solid lines), along with the 95% prediction band (shaded areas), for each route: acquisitions from non-HCWs, from HCWs resting between work shifts, from symptomatic HCWs strictly isolating in the community and, in the quarantine hospital strategy case, from HCWs isolating after a shift in the quarantine hospital. The dashed lines show the median acquisition proportion over the entire 365 days.
Table 1.
Comparison of the frequency of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 acquisitions among patients and HCWs in the two strategies.
The table provides, for patients, the average risk of nosocomial acquisition over their entire hospital stay; and for HCWs, the average weekly risk of occupational acquisition.
Fig 4.
Predicted reduction achieved by the quarantine hospital strategy (as compared with the reference strategy)
in (a) the cumulative number of infections over 365 days and (b) the peak incidence, as a function of RC, the approximate reproduction number in the community, and ϵ, the level of self-isolation non-compliance in symptomatic HCWs.
Fig 5.
Reduction in the cumulative number of nosocomial SARS-CoV-2 acquisitions over 365 days,
as a function of assumed values for RC, the approximate reproduction number in the community, and ϵ, the level of self-isolation non-compliance in symptomatic HCWs.
Fig 6.
Sensitivity analysis: partial rank correlation coefficients (PRCC) between the predicted relative reduction in the cumulative number of cases over 365 days and model parameters.
Three categories of parameters are explored: biological characteristics of the virus, parameters resulting from the population structure and implemented control measures within the usual hospitals and community ("sanitary context parameters") and parameters describing the implementation of the quarantine hospital strategy ("organizational parameters"). The full list of model parameters is provided in Table 2, along with their baseline values and explored ranges.
Table 2.
Model parameters