Fig 1.
Data collected in Jeju Island between 2017 and 2021.
(a) SFTS incidence per 100,000 population in South Korea and Jeju Island (b) monthly average temperature and relative humidity in Jeju Island (c) monthly number of ticks collected in Jeju Island [45].
Fig 2.
Schematic diagram for the mathematical model.
Table 1.
Parameter description.
Fig 3.
(a) collected actual data (blue circle) and estimation result (red line) of the cumulative number of the total tick population including larvae, nymphs, and adults (b) estimation result of climate-dependent development rates and reproduction rate.
Fig 4.
Temperature and humidity on Jeju Island under SSP climate change scenarios.
(a) the average yearly temperature and (b) the average yearly relative humidity [50].
Table 2.
Formulae for the cost estimation.
Table 3.
Descriptions and values of parameters for cost estimation.
Fig 5.
Effects of climate change under SSP scenarios.
(a) the monthly abundance of ticks (b) the cumulative abundance of ticks from 2030 to 2100.
Fig 6.
Sensitivity index of the cumulative number of ticks about model parameters under the SSP scenarios.
T denotes temperature, H denotes relative humidity, denotes the development rate from eggs to larvae,
denotes the development rate from larvae to nymphs,
denotes the development rate from nymphs to adults,
denotes the reproduction rate of female adults. Additionally,
denotes the mortality rate of eggs per month,
denotes the mortality rate of larvae per month,
denotes the mortality rate of nymphs per month,
denotes the mortality rate of female adults per month, and
denotes the mortality rate of male adults per month.
Fig 7.
Cumulative number of ticks when each control measure is implemented for 1M and 4M.
For the 4M scenario, each control measure is implemented for four consecutive months from the starting month to the following 3 months. For example, if the control measure is implemented starting in April, the control measure will be implemented in April, May, June, and July.
Fig 8.
The annual tick abundance under the best and worst scenarios for each control measure under the SSP5-8.5.
Best and Worst indicate the control measure scenario that reduces the tick population the most and the least, respectively.
Fig 9.
The cumulative number of the tick, the cumulative number of SFTS patients, and total cost including medical cost, wage loss, and control cost according to different climate change scenarios and control measures.
In the right column (Total cost), in each color (blue, red, green), the lightest shade corresponds to control costs, the darkest shade represents wage losses, and the intermediate shade indicates medical costs.