Fig 1.
Graphical representation of our analysis.
Key novelties in our appraoch compared to previous analyses of MBD thermal biology are highlighted in green.
Fig 2.
Culex life cycle (blue) and WNV transmission cycle (black) as well as the temperature-dependent parameters involved in both processes.
Pointed arrows represent stage transitions and blunted arrows represent contact events facilitating disease transmission. Parameters to the side of the arrows represent rates, while parameters at the end of the arrows represent transition probabilites. Temperature-independent parameters and processes are left out of the figure. A detailed description of the temperature-dependent parameters can be found in Table 1.
Table 1.
Description of the temperature-dependent parameters appearing in and the mosquito population dynamics model.
Table 2.
Overview of our estimates of the optimal temperature and temperature limits of for WNV in Culex species.
Fig 3.
Estimated temperature response of the relative basic reproduction number for WNV in six Culex species.
Black solid lines indicate the mean temperature response. Red dots indicate mean estimates of the optimal temperature and temperature limits of . Red solid lines represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI.
Fig 4.
(A) Mean temperature response of the relative basic reproduction number for WNV in Cx. pipiens contrasting the estimate from transmission suitability model introduced in the main text (see Equation (5)) as well as from four alternative model formulations from the published literature (see Equations (SI7.1–7.7) in
S1 Text). (B) Mean estimates of the optimal temperature of per model (dots) and the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CIs (lines).
Fig 5.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of the larva to adult development rate for six Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 6.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of the egg to larva development rate for five Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 7.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of larva to adult survival for six Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 8.
Estimates of the expected response of adult mosquito lifespan for six Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 9.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of egg viability for three Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 10.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of the adult biting rate for four Culex species.
Dots represent data from experimental studies, with measurements for the same species shown in different colours to indicate separate experiments. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. nexp and ntotal denote the number of experiments and the total number of data points for each species.
Fig 11.
Estimates of the expected temperature response of the mosquito infection probability for three experiments testing different WNV strains in Cx.
pipiens. Dots represent data from experimental studies. Black solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Grey shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. n denotes the number of data points for each experiment.
Fig 12.
(A-D) Estimated relationship between the days post exposure and the percentage of transmitting mosquitoes upon infected mosquitoes for four different experiments each testing multiple temperatures.
(E) Corresponding estimates of the expected temperature response of the extrinsic incubation period (in our statistical model defined as the time when 50% transmitting mosquitoes are expected to be reached, see Equation (16)) for the four different experiments. Solid lines represent posterior distribution mean model fits. Shaded areas represent the corresponding central/equal-tailed 95% CI. n denotes the number of data points for each experiment.