Fig 1.
(a) Map showing the spatial location of the studies included in the modelling of K13 prevalence. The size of the marker is proportional to the number of patients in the study and the colour of the marker denotes the observed K13 marker prevalence. National shapefiles were obtained from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP; https://malariaatlas.org/) under their open access policy (https://malariaatlas.org/open-access-policy/) and no changes were made. (b) Number of studies each year since 2000, broken down by country. (c) Temporal trends in country level K13 prevalence data since 2000, where the number of patients is denoted by the size of the circles.
Table 1.
K13 mutant alleles that have been strongly associated with slow parasite clearance from [12], that are considered here for spatio-temporal mapping.
Fig 2.
Example posterior predictive distributions for K13 prevalence at two locations, in Pailin, Cambodia (left hand side panels) and Kyaukme, Myanmar (right hand side panels). The rows relate to the predictive distribution in 2000 and 2020, respectively. The vertical red lines represent the median prevalence. National shapefiles were obtained from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP; https://malariaatlas.org/) under their open access policy (https://malariaatlas.org/open-access-policy/) and no changes were made.
Fig 3.
Posterior predictive median prevalence of K13 marker in the Greater Mekong Subregion in 2000 (a), 2010 (b) and 2020 (c), in regions where the median MAP estimates of parasite rate among those aged 2–10 years is predicted to be non-zero are visualised (see Fig C in S1 Text for results for the entire Greater Mekong subregion). Associated standard deviations for posterior predictions in 2000 (d), 2010 (e) and 2020 (f). National shapefiles were obtained from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP; https://malariaatlas.org/) under their open access policy (https://malariaatlas.org/open-access-policy/) and no changes were made.
Fig 4.
The predicted area with K13 marker prevalence exceeding 10% (shaded region), based on median predictions, in 2000 (a), 2005 (b), 2010 (c), 2015 (d) and 2020 (e), in regions where the median MAP estimates of parasite rate among those aged 2–10 years is predicted to be non-zero are visualised (see Fig D in S1 Text for results for the entire Greater Mekong subregion). The changing extent of the region that exceeds 10% K13 marker prevalence is summarised in (f). National shapefiles were obtained from the Malaria Atlas Project (MAP; https://malariaatlas.org/) under their open access policy (https://malariaatlas.org/open-access-policy/) and no changes were made.