Fig 1.
Illustrative description of the method. Created with BioRender.com.
Fig 2.
Campylobacteriosis cases per 1, 000, 000 per day vs (A) maximum air temperature, (B) minimum air temperature (C) relative humidity (D) rainfall (E) mean wind speed and (F) day-length.
Data were averaged over the past number of days represented by the time-lag. The shaded area shows the 95% confidence intervals for the Poisson means using the normal approximation (i.e. . Data divided by quantiles.
Fig 3.
Campylobacteriosis cases per 1, 000, 000 per day conditioned to maximum air temperature, relative humidity and day-length.
As the day-length depends on the time of the year (as well as latitude), each panel broadly correspond to (A) last week of October—middle of February, (B) middle of February—first week of April and middle of September- last week of October (C) first week of April—second-half of May and second-half of July—middle of September (D) second-half of May—second-half of of July 22. Data were averaged over the past 14 days. The shaded area shows the 95% confidence intervals for the Poisson means using the normal approximation (i.e. . Data divided by quantiles.
Fig 4.
A) Reconstruction of the time-series of Campylobacter cases in England and Wales. B) Seasonal patterns for daily Campylobacter cases averaged over 19 years. The shaded area represents the 25% and F quantiles. Weather variables are maximum air temperature, relative humidity and day-length. C-D) Scatter plot and map comparing the reported and predicted daily number of campylobacteriosis per catchment area averaged over the entire 19 years. In D) the red circles represent the reported cases while the blue squares the predictions. Weather variables averaged over the past 14 days. Map reproduced in R [45] using shapefiles availalbe at [46].
Fig 5.
Prediction of seasonal patterns for daily Campylobacter cases as done in Fig 4 for the situation when 2 variables are constant (Weather variables averaged over the past 14 days).
A) Constant relative humidity 76% and day-length 15 hours. B) Constant maximum air temperature 20°C and day-length 15 hours. C) Constant maximum air temperature 20°C and relative humidity 76%. D-E-F) Patterns for daily 14-days rolling mean for maximum air temperature, relative humidity and day-length averaged over 19 years. The shaded area represents the 25% and 75% quantiles. G-H-I) Conditional incidence vs the variable weather factors for the situation corresponding to A) B) and C) respectively.