Fig 1.
Plotting the time series for the 3 data streams: Cases, PHE deaths, and CQC deaths.
Fig 2.
Top left: cohort versus forward. Top right: cohort versus backward. Bottom left: Cohort versus shifted backward. Bottom right: Forward versus shifted backward. Dashed lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals of the daily CFR estimates. In the shifted backward results, we shift the daily estimates to 10 days prior, reflecting the average delay from testing positive to death.
Fig 3.
Comparing weekly instantaneous CFR to daily instantaneous CFR, using PHE data.
Left panel shows the forward methods and right panel shows the backward methods.
Fig 4.
Comparing daily instantaneous CFR to daily overall CFR, using PHE data.
The left panel shows the forward methods, and the right panel shows the backward methods.
Fig 5.
Comparing estimates derived from the CQC data to the PHE data.
Since the CQC data uses date of report, we have strong weekend effects in the backward method, so also look at the 7-day rolling average (A). The forward method does not exhibit the weekend effects, since this method smooths through nearby CFR estimates, so the 7-day rolling average is not necessary here (B). When comparing forward and backward (C) and (F), we use a 14-day time shift, since this is the expected delay used from testing positive to reporting death. In (D) and (E) we plot the PHE estimates for comparison.
Fig 6.
Comparing the CFR within different age groups of care home residents, using the weekly backward method and PHE data.
Fig 7.
CFR based on type of care: With nursing or without nursing, using PHE data and backward methods.
(A) shows the daily instantaneous CFR, (B) shows the weekly instantaneous CFR, and (C) shows the overall CFR over time. Dashed lines indicate the 95% confidence intervals.
Fig 8.
Comparing weekly CFR trends across English regions, using PHE data and the backward method.
Each panel contains the regional trend and the national trend.
Fig 9.
Comparing weekly CFR trends across English regions, using CQC data and the backward method.
Each panel contains the regional trend and the national trend.
Table 1.
Overall CFR as of 27/09/2021 in each region of England, using the backward method and PHE data.