Table 1.
Description of model parameters, our baseline parameterisation and the alternative values considered in the univariate sensitivity analysis.
Fig 1.
The trade-off between transmission, absences, and testing volume.
(a) Relationship between total infections and school days missed for an isolation of year group bubbles strategy (orange), twice weekly mass testing combined with isolation of year group bubbles (yellow), serial contact testing (blue), twice weekly mass testing combined with serial contact testing (green), and twice weekly mass testing alone (purple). (b) Percentage of school pupils infected during the course of the half-term.(c) Comparison of the total number of infections by the end of the half-term by the five considered control strategies (y-axis) against the total number of infections by the end of the half-term with no infection control measures (x-axis). The dashed line corresponds to parity in the total amount of infection using no infection controls and the given control strategy. (d) For rapid testing strategies, the percentage of asymptomatic cases that had been identified through rapid testing by the end of the half term. (e) Violin plots of the mean number of school days missed per pupil within simulated schools. The inset plot shows strategies (iii)-(vi). (f) For rapid testing strategies, violin plots of the mean number of LFTs taken per pupil within simulated schools. Results produced from 10,000 simulations. In all violin plots, the circle marker denotes the median and the black bars the 50% prediction intervals.
Fig 2.
Infection, absences, and testing over the duration of the school half-term.
We display timeseries of (a) prevalence, (b) the percentage of currently infectious asymptomatic individuals identified for reopening strategies involving within-school testing. We display timeseries of (c) the percentage of pupils absent and (d) percentage of pupils tested throughout the half-term. Solid line traces correspond to the mean value attained on each daily timestep and shaded envelopes represent the 50% prediction intervals (these regions contain 50% of all simulations at each timepoint). The strategies displayed are: no control (grey), twice weekly mass testing (purple), serial contact testing (blue), isolating year group bubbles strategy (orange), combined twice weekly mass testing and serial contact testing (green), combined twice weekly mass testing and isolation of year group bubbles (yellow). Results produced from 10,000 simulations.
Fig 3.
The impact of pupil participation in lateral flow testing on infections and absences.
We varied the percentage of pupils who agreed to participate in lateral flow testing (0% to 100%, with 1% increments). (a) Total number of pupils infected by the end of the half-term. (b) Mean school days missed per pupil within a school over the course of the half-term. (c) For rapid testing strategies, the percentage of asymptomatic cases that had been identified through rapid testing by the end of the half term. In each panel, solid line traces correspond to the mean value attained from 2,000 simulations and shaded envelopes represent the 50% prediction intervals (these regions contain 50% of all simulations at each timepoint). The strategies displayed are: no control (grey), twice weekly mass testing (purple), serial contact testing (blue), isolating year group bubbles (orange), combined twice weekly mass testing and serial contact testing (green), combined twice weekly mass testing and isolation of year group bubbles (yellow).