Fig 1.
The figure depicts the one-way tunnel with the volunteer’s foot covered in a net in the ‘host’ cage on the left, and the ‘holding’ cage on the right. Both cages are of the same size, 32.5 × 32.5 × 32.5cm. The cages are connected with a PLEXIGLAS tube (l = 30cm, d = 14.6cm). Depending on the chosen treatment for the experiment, the net is either an unwashed PermaNet 2.0 or an untreated net, measuring 25 × 25cm in both cases. In this setup the mosquitoes have direct access to the foot for blood feeding.
Fig 2.
Proportion of alive mosquitoes.
Visualisation of the data used for the calculations. The scatter plots show the proportion of alive mosquitoes at each time for 50 mosquitoes in each replicate, and the line shows the proportion of the total number of alive mosquitoes for 200 mosquitoes. Data are plotted up until the final remaining mosquito per replicate died. Replicate 1 was excluded for reasons outlined in the text.
Fig 3.
Plots for the proportion of surviving mosquitoes at each day for the control (non-exposed) and treated (exposed) cases using the three different survival functions (age-independent, logistic, Gompertz). In the treated column, all mosquitoes are dead by day 33. The fits are extended to day 64 for a better comparison between the two treatments. The shaded area around the control and treated curves represents the 95% confidence interval due to the error propagated from the parameter estimates in each function using Monte Carlo simulations. The shaded area around the Kaplan-Meier estimator represents the pointwise log-log transformed 95% confidence interval.
Fig 4.
Comparison of mortality for the two treatments.
The dashed line represents where all mosquitoes are already dead in the experiment for the treated case. The shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval due to the error propagated from the parameter estimates in each function using Monte Carlo simulations.
Table 1.
Maximum likelihood estimates for the parameters.
Fig 5.
Mosquito timeline after taking an infectious blood-meal.
We assume that a mosquito takes an infectious blood-meal at age a0. In order for it to become infectious, it must survive the EIP. After surviving the EIP, at age a1, the mosquito will take infectious blood-meals up until its death, at a2. [Note: the mosquito might not survive the EIP, hence, it is possible that a2 < a1.] The mosquito clip-art used to produce this figure was obtained from www.clker.com under the CC0 1.0 Universal Public Domain Dedication license.
Fig 6.
Probability the mosquito survives the extrinsic incubation period given that it takes an infectious blood-meal at age a0.
The plots show the values of Eqs (11), (12) and (13) over different ages. The shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval due to the error propagated from the parameter estimates using Monte Carlo simulations.
Fig 7.
Heatmaps of the probability the number of bites is equal to some j given that the mosquito exits the extrinsic incubation period (EIP) at age a1.
The heatmaps are obtained from the fitted parameters. The error bars on the mean markers represent the 95% confidence interval due to the propagated error for the fitted parameters using Monte Carlo simulations.
Fig 8.
The expected number of bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime given it has taken an infectious blood-meal at age a0.
The shaded area represents the 95% confidence interval due to the error propagated from the parameter estimates using Monte Carlo simulations.
Fig 9.
The expected number of infectious bites a mosquito will take in its lifetime.
The error bars represent the 95% confidence interval due to the error propagated from the parameter estimates through Monte Carlo simulations.
Fig 10.
Violin plots showing the relative difference in the vectorial capacity with treatment.
The figure shows the full distribution of the results for each function obtained from the Monte Carlo simulations. The error bars represent the 95% confidence interval due to the propagated error of the parameter estimates using Monte Carlo simulations.