Fig 1.
Population size distribution for Norway, France, Italy, Netherlands, Denmark, Iceland and United Kingdom, in different administrative units: 428 municipalities for Norway, 334 arrondissements for France, 107 provinces for Italy, 388 municipalities for the Netherlands, 98 municipalities for Denmark, 129 post codes for Iceland and 424 local authorities for the UK.
Fig 2.
Generated versions of the country for various κ. Upper left: No clustering. Upper center: κ = 0.1. Upper right: κ = 0.2. Middle left: κ = 0.5. Middle center: κ = 0.8. Middle right: κ = 1.0. Bottom left: κ = 1.5. Bottom center: κ = 2.0. Bottom right: κ = 3.0.
Fig 3.
Global prevalence in baseline scenario.
Estimated global prevalence for the various clustering levels in the baseline scenario with no interventions, with 95% confidence bands around the mean.
Table 1.
Baseline scenario.
Fig 4.
Peak dates for baseline scenario.
Peak dates for the various clustering levels. These are averages over the simulations where an epidemic occurred in the respective block units. The white locations never experienced the epidemic. Upper left: No clustering. Upper center: κ = 0.1. Upper right: κ = 0.2. Middle left: κ = 0.5. Middle center: κ = 0.8. Middle right: κ = 1.0. Bottom left: κ = 1.5. Bottom center: κ = 2.0. Bottom right: κ = 3.0. The seeding locations are seen as blue dots.
Table 2.
τ = 0.
Fig 5.
Global prevalence under travel restrictions.
Global prevalence curves in the situation with travel restrictions included in the model, with τ = 0 (a), τ = 1/1000 (b), τ = 1/100 (c), with 95% confidence bands around the mean.
Fig 6.
Peak dates for infection when τ = 0. These are averages over the simulations where an epidemic occurred in the respective block units. The white locations never experienced the epidemic. Upper left: No clustering. Upper center: κ = 0.1. Upper right: κ = 0.2. Middle left: κ = 0.5. Middle center: κ = 0.8. Middle right: κ = 1.0. Bottom left: κ = 1.5. Bottom center: κ = 2.0. Bottom right: κ = 3.0.
Table 3.
τ = 1/1000.
Table 4.
τ = 1/100.
Fig 7.
Peak dates in the setting with τ = 1/1000 for the various clustering levels. These are averages over the simulations where an epidemic occurred in the respective block units. The white locations never experienced the epidemic. Upper left: No clustering. Upper center: κ = 0.1. Upper right: κ = 0.2. Middle left: κ = 0.5. Middle center: κ = 0.8. Middle right: κ = 1.0. Bottom left: κ = 1.5. Bottom center: κ = 2.0. Bottom right: κ = 3.0.
Fig 8.
Peak dates in the setting with τ = 1/100 for the various clustering levels. These are averages over the simulations where an epidemic occurred in the respective block units. The locations which were never infected are coloured in white. Upper left: No clustering. Upper center: κ = 0.1. Upper right: κ = 0.2. Middle left: κ = 0.5. Middle center: κ = 0.8. Middle right: κ = 1.0. Bottom left: κ = 1.5. Bottom center: κ = 2.0. Bottom right: κ = 3.0.
Fig 9.
Peak date, peak prevalence, area not infected and final size.
Peak dates for the global prevalence curve, peak prevalence, mean area not infected and mean final size as a function of clustering, with corresponding 95% confidence bands. The lines correspond to the baseline scenario, 90% travel restrictions, 99% travel restrictions and 100% travel restrictions. Top left: peak date. Top right: peak prevalence. Bottom left: area not infected. Bottom right: final size.
Fig 10.
Final size versus travel ratio.
Final size versus ratio of non-commuting travel to commuting for various clustering levels, κ, with corresponding 95% confidence bands. a) All locations. b) Locations with population size smaller than the 25% quantile. c) Locations with population size between the 25% and 50% quantile. d) Locations with population size between the 50% quantile and the 75% quantile. e) Locations with population size larger than the 75% quantile.
Fig 11.
Peak date versus travel ratio.
Peak date versus ratio of non-commuting travel to commuting for various clustering levels, κ, with 95% confidence bands.
Fig 12.
Global prevalence under vaccination.
Global prevalence curves for the various clustering levels, under three different vaccination schemes, with 95% confidence bands around the mean. (a) Uniform vaccination, (b) preferential vaccination in urban locations and (c) preferential vaccination in rural locations.
Table 5.
Uniform vaccination.
Table 6.
Urban vaccination.
Table 7.
Rural vaccination.
Fig 13.
Peak date, peak prevalence, area not infected and final size under vaccination.
Peak dates for the global mean prevalence curve, peak prevalence, mean area not infected and mean final size as a function of clustering, with 95% confidence bands. The lines correspond to the baseline scenario, uniform vaccination, urban vaccination and rural vaccination. Top left: peak date. Top right: peak prevalence. Bottom left: area not infected. Bottom right: final size.
Fig 14.
Peak date, peak prevalence, area not infected and final size under combined interventions.
Peak dates for the global mean prevalence curve, peak prevalence, mean area not infected and mean final size as a function of clustering, with 95% confidence bands around the mean. The lines correspond to the baseline scenario, uniform vaccination, urban vaccination and rural vaccination. Top left: peak date. Top right: peak prevalence. Bottom left: area not infected. Bottom right: final size.