Fig 1.
Vaccination and NPI decisions.
(a) Diagram representing the vaccination choice problem. (b) Diagram representing the infectious NPI choice problem. (c) Diagram representing the susceptible NPI choice problem.
Table 1.
Model parameters with baseline values and sources.
Fig 2.
Example time series of vaccination (blue) and incidence (green) over a season. When a vaccine becomes available in early October, uptake increases in anticipation of the upcoming influenza season. Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of outputs for the 100 parameter sets (see Model Calibration section).
Table 2.
Sampling ranges for parameters used to obtain 100 baseline sets.
Table 3.
Acceptance ranges for simulation averages across 30 seasons.
Fig 3.
Impact of vaccine introduction.
Example of a baseline scenario of our model where vaccination becomes available in season 10, causing a change in the vaccine coverage each season (blue), the seasonal infection incidence (green), the probability that a susceptible individual practices NPIs given that they encounter one or more infectious individuals on a given day (black), and the probability that an infectious individual practices NPIs while ill (red). Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of outputs for the 100 parameter sets.
Fig 4.
The effects of social parameters on interventions.
Univariate sensitivity analysis for parameters ES, EH, and ED. The numbers on the horizontal axes correspond to multiples of the baseline values for ES, EH, and ED, hence 1.0 corresponds to the baseline value of the each parameter. (a), (c), (e) Average values across 30 seasons for vaccination coverage (blue) and incidence (green). (b), (d), (f) Average values across 30 seasons for NPI usage amongst susceptible individuals (black) and infectious individuals (red). Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.
Fig 5.
The effects of infection and vaccination costs on interventions.
Univariate sensitivity analysis for EV and EI. The numbers on the horizontal axes correspond to multiples of the baseline values for EV and EI, hence 1.0 corresponds to the baseline value of the each parameter. (a), (c) Average values across 30 seasons for vaccination coverage (blue) and incidence (green). (b), (d) Average values across 30 seasons for NPI usage amongst susceptible individuals (black) and infectious individuals (red). Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.
Fig 6.
Interference between vaccination and NPIs.
Univariate analysis for social parameters ES, EH, and ED determining the amount that vaccination and NPIs interfere with each other in each scenario. (a), (c), (e) Average values across 30 seasons for change in vaccination coverage (blue) and change in incidence (green) between hypothetical scenarios without NPI usage and the baseline scenarios. (b), (d), (f) Average values across 30 seasons for change in NPI usage amongst susceptible (black) and infectious (red) individuals and change in incidence (green) between hypothetical scenarios without vaccine usage and the baseline scenarios. Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.
Fig 7.
Interference between vaccination and NPIs.
Univariate analysis for EV and EI determining the amount that vaccination and NPIs interfere with each other in each scenario. (a), (c) Average values across 30 seasons for change in vaccination coverage (blue) and change in incidence (green) between hypothetical scenarios without NPI usage and the baseline scenarios. (b), (d) Average values across 30 seasons for change in NPI usage amongst susceptible (black) and infectious (red) individuals and change in incidence (green) between hypothetical scenarios without vaccine usage and the baseline scenarios. Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.
Fig 8.
(a), (b) Univariate sensitivity analysis for NPI efficacy, ϵNPI. Data shows average values across 30 seasons for vaccination coverage (blue), incidence (green), NPI usage amongst susceptible individuals (black), and NPI usage amongst infectious individuals (red). (c), (d) Determining the amount that vaccination and NPIs interfere with each other for various NPI efficacies. Average values across 30 seasons for change in vaccination coverage (blue), change in incidence (green), and change in NPI usage amongst susceptible (black) and infectious (red) individuals are shown. Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.
Fig 9.
The effects of vaccine efficacy.
(a), (b) Univariate sensitivity analysis for vaccine efficacy, ϵV. Data shows average values across 30 seasons for vaccination coverage (blue), incidence (green), NPI usage amongst susceptible individuals (black), and NPI usage amongst infectious individuals (red). (c), (d) Determining the amount that vaccination and NPIs interfere with each other for various vaccine efficacies. Average values across 30 seasons for change in vaccination coverage (blue), change in incidence (green), and change in NPI usage amongst susceptible (black) and infectious (red) individuals are shown. Confidence intervals represent two standard deviations of the mean of the 100 parameter sets across 30 simulated seasons.