Table 1.
Diseases-location contexts analyzed, with data sources.
Table 2.
Transferability rt example.
Figure 1.
Selected successful model nowcasts.
These graphs show official epidemiological data and nowcast model estimate (left Y axis) with traffic to the five most-correlated Wikipedia articles (right Y axis) over the 3 year study periods. The Wikipedia time series are individually self-normalized. Graphs for the four remaining successful contexts (dengue in Thailand, influenza in Japan, influenza in Thailand, and tuberculosis in Thailand) are included in the supplemental data file S1.
Figure 2.
Forecasting effectiveness for selected successful models.
This figure shows model r2 compared to temporal offset in days: positive offsets are forecasting, zero is nowcasting (marked with a dotted line), and negative offsets are anti-forecasting. As above, figures for the four successful contexts not included here are in the supplemental data S1.
Figure 3.
Nowcast attempts where the model was unable to capture a meaningful pattern in official data.
Figure 4.
Nowcast attempts with poor performance due to unfavorable signal-to-noise ratio.
Table 3.
Model performance summary.
Table 4.
Transferability scores rt for paired models.