Combining seasonal malaria chemoprevention with novel therapeutics for malaria prevention: a mathematical modelling study
Fig 5
Gaussian Process regression emulator predictions for the relationship between blood stage therapeutic properties and expected reductions in cumulative uncomplicated and severe cases relative to SMC alone.
Results show the imperfect deployment scenario, where children aged three to 59 months received three SMC cycles. Transmission is high (32% PfPR2-10), 75% of malaria cases occur within six months of the year, and the probability of seeking first-line treatment for clinical malaria over 14 days is low (10%). Each panel shows the median reduction in cumulative uncomplicated (solid lines) or severe cases (dashed lines) achieved by combining seasonal deployment of a blood stage therapeutic with SMC, relative to cumulative cases when SMC is deployed alone. Median reductions are calculated by dividing the parameter range for the therapeutic property shown on the x-axis (protection half-life, initial efficacy, decay shape) into 51 segments, and calculating the median outcome for each given segment across all other parameter values. Shaded regions represent the 25th and 75th percentiles of the corresponding reductions. Emulator predictions are shown separately for cumulative case outcomes at five (panels A) and ten years old (panels B). SMC = seasonal malaria chemoprevention.