Combining seasonal malaria chemoprevention with novel therapeutics for malaria prevention: a mathematical modelling study
Fig 2
Predicted cumulative case curves when seasonal deployment of two exemplar pre-liver stage therapeutics are combined with SMC.
The median number of cumulative cases per year of age were calculated when children aged three to 59 months received one of the following interventions: no intervention, three SMC cycles (imperfect deployment scenario), seasonal deployment of a pre-liver stage therapeutic, or the combination of three SMC cycles and the pre-liver stage therapeutic. Top panels include deployment of a pre-liver stage therapeutic with a protection half-life of 354 days, 90% initial efficacy, and decay shape parameter of 1. Bottom panels include a pre-liver stage therapeutic with a protection half-life of 120 days, 50% initial efficacy, and decay shape parameter of 1. The pink shaded regions indicate age-eligibility for SMC and the novel therapeutic. Shaded regions indicate the minimum and maximum cumulative cases per person observed across stochastic replicates of simulations from the individual-based malaria transmission model. Model results are shown for a scenario with transmission intensity corresponding to 32% PfPR2-10, where 75% of malaria cases occur within six months of the year and the probability of seeking first-line treatment for clinical malaria over 14 days is low (10%).