Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria
Fig 6
Equivalent illustrations of estimated sensitivity and probability of freedom from infection as in Figure 5, for the subsequent period from 2016-2020.
The estimated timeline from Eichner and Dietz [1] for the risk of continued “silent” infections to fall below 5% after detection of the last clinical case is marked in (B), along with the official declaration of WPV elimination from Nigeria in August 2020.