Sub-national modelling of surveillance sensitivity to inform declaration of disease elimination: A retrospective validation against the elimination of wild poliovirus in Nigeria
Fig 5
(A) Estimated sensitivity of AFP (orange) and ENV (blue) surveillance per month, for detecting infection at the specified design prevalence of 1 per 100,000 in any LGA. The box plots illustrate uncertainty across 1,000 draws for each probability in the scenario tree. (B) Inferred probability of freedom from infection for each accumulating month without detection of WPV1 through either AFP or ENV surveillance. Uncertainty is represented by 95% quantile intervals across 1,000 draws. Thresholds of 95% and 99% probability are illustrated with dashed lines. Results from the combined surveillance system are compared to those obtained by considering each component alone.