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Spatial close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate dispersal parameters and barrier strength for mosquitoes

Fig 4

Sampling schemes to estimate for Ae. aegypti.

Violin plots depict estimates of for sampling scenarios described in Sect 3.1. The default simulated metapopulation consists of a 19-by-19 grid of households each inhabited by 25 adult Ae. aegypti at equilibrium with bionomic parameters listed in Table 1. Boxes depict median and interquartile ranges of 100 simulation-and-analysis replicates for each scenario, thin lines represent 5% and 95% quantiles, points represent outliers, and kernel density plots are superimposed. The initial sampling scheme consists of a total of 2,000 adult females sampled as ca. 2 individuals collected twice weekly over a three-month period for each trap node, considering a 6-by-6 array of trap nodes with one population node separating each trap node (Fig 1C). In panel (A), the number and spacing of trap nodes is varied (arranged in 4-by-4, 5-by-5 or 6-by-6 grids with zero, one or two population nodes separating each trap node). In panel (B), trap nodes are arranged in a 5-by-5 grid with two population nodes separating each trap node (Fig 1D), and total sample sizes of 1,500, 2,000, 2,500 and 3,000 are explored. In panel (C), a sample size of 2,500 is adopted, and three life stage proportions are explored: all larvae, all adult females, and half larvae/half adult females. The optimal sampling scheme consists of 2,500 adult females collected biweekly over a three-month period spread over a 5-by-5 grid of trap nodes with two population nodes separating each trap node. In panel (D), the optimal sampling scheme is adopted and a larger metapopulation consisting of a 37-by-37 grid of households is used to evaluate how far apart trap nodes may be placed (separated by 0-7 household nodes) while still obtaining reasonable estimates of .

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013713.g004