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Spatial close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate dispersal parameters and barrier strength for mosquitoes
Fig 3
Schematic representation of spatial adult-adult full-sibling kinship probabilities.
Parameters and state variables are as defined in Table 1 and Sect 2.2. Subscript 1 refers to the reference sibling, and subscript 2 refers to the sibling from whose perspective the probabilities are calculated. Circles represent living individuals, squares represent sampled individuals, and colors represent their locations: blue for sibling 1, x1, purple for sibling 2, x2, grey for the location of egg-laying for sibling 1, and pink for the location of egg-laying for sibling 2. The location of egg-laying for the firstborn sibling (here, sibling 1) is denoted by x*, and 
denotes the egg-laying location for the other sibling. Sibling 1 is sampled on day t1 and laid on day y1. Sibling 2 is sampled on day t2 and laid on day y2. Sibling kinship probabilities are the ratio of the expected number of surviving siblings of a given individual at location x2 on day t2, and the expected number of surviving offspring from all adult females for this location and day. Calculating the expected number of surviving full-siblings at location x2 on day t2 requires considering days of egg-laying, y1 and y2, consistent with adult ages at sampling in the range [0,TA). There are three movements to consider: those of the mother and two adult siblings (orange arrows). Movement probabilities consider both orders of egg-laying.
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013713.g003