Spatial close-kin mark-recapture methods to estimate dispersal parameters and barrier strength for mosquitoes
Fig 2
Schematic representation of spatial mother-larval offspring kinship probability.
Parameters and state variables are as defined in Table 1 and Sect 2.1. Subscript 1 refers to the parent, and subscript 2 refers to the offspring (the perspective from which probabilities are calculated). Circles represent living individuals, squares represent sampled individuals, and colors represent their locations: blue for the sampled parent, x1, and purple for the sampled offspring, x2. Parents are sampled on day t1, eggs are laid on day y2, and offspring are sampled on day t2. Offspring kinship probabilities are the ratio of the expected number of surviving offspring from a given adult at location x2 on day t2, and the expected number of surviving offspring from all adult females for this location and day. Calculating the expected number of surviving larval offspring at location x2 on day t2 from an adult female requires considering days of egg-laying, y2, consistent with maternal ages at sampling in the range [0,TA), and larval offspring ages at sampling in the range [0,TL). The only movement to consider is that of the mother (orange arrow).