An explainable covariate compartmental model for predicting the spatio-temporal patterns of dengue in Sri Lanka
Fig 3
The vertical axis shows MAE values for the model configurations described in Table 2, calculated as the average result across all districts. Models I through IV are evaluated as part of the model selection process, while Models V additionally account for the strain shift and the immunity reduction observed in 2017 with the introduction of DENV-2 and are validated on 2019 prospective data.