A Bayesian model for repeated cross-sectional epidemic prevalence survey data
Fig 6
Estimates of the instantaneous reproduction number Rt for SARS-CoV-2 in England between 1 May 2020 and 31 March 2022 using data from the REACT-1 study.
All approaches are fit assuming a beta-binomial observation distribution. Solid coloured lines show central estimates while shading and dashed lines show 95% credible intervals. Grey shading indicates the periods in which sampling was conducted. The second panel shows the same estimates for a shorter period (9 September 2021 to 31 March 2022), emphasising the differences between the three approaches. The third panel shows the same estimates, with estimates from the Eales approach shifted by days to partially account for bias induced by the trailing-window smoothing assumption.