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A Bayesian model for repeated cross-sectional epidemic prevalence survey data
Fig 3
Coverage and average width of 95% credible intervals for prevalence Pt (%) from fitting all three observation models (purple: basic, blue: extra-binomial, green: weighted) to simulated data from each model (column A: basic, column B: extra-binomial, column C: weighted).
Results from individual simulations are shown as semi-transparent crosses, with averages over 10 simulations shown as points connected by solid lines (for assumed 
) and dashed lines (for assumed 
). A range of assumed daily sample sizes nt are considered (x-axis). The horizontal black dashed line indicates the target coverage of 0.95. The y-axis for coverage is truncated to (0.5,1.0), although the coverage in some cases falls outside this range: reaching a minimum average of 0.33 for the basic model fit to the extra-binomial simulations and a minimum average of 0 for the basic and extra-binomial models fit to the weighted simulations (all when 
).
doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013515.g003