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Fast and exact stochastic simulations of epidemics on static and temporal networks

Fig 8

Empirical temporal networks with finite vs. instantaneous contacts.

(a): Average trajectory over 1000 simulations of a SIR epidemic spreading along the College Messaging temporal network [27]. The dataset spans 193 days with 20296 messages, during which 1899 users have either received or sent at least one message. At the initial time, the first user is infected. For the finite-duration simulations, links with weight w_ij = 3 exists for days during each contact. When simulating with instantaneous contacts, contacts had weight w_ij = 1. In both cases, the infectiousness was constant, and nodes recover after a lognormally distributed time with mean 14 and standard deviation 10 days. (b): Runtimes of an SI epidemic on different empirical temporal networks. Temporal networks were selected from an online database [22] and are in order of increasing size: Bitcoin web of trust network [28], an emails network [29], Mathoverflow [29], Hyperlinks between subreddits on Reddit [30], User edits network on Wikipedia [29]. Plot shows runtime averages over 1000 simulations.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1013490.g008