serojump: A Bayesian tool for inferring infection timing and antibody kinetics from longitudinal serological data
Fig 4
Antibody kinetics, recovery of infection timings, and correlates of protection from empirical data with PCR information.
(A) Fitted antibody kinetic trajectories for individuals with infection prior to the Delta variant (left), infection during the Delta variant wave (center), and following vaccination (right), showing fold-rise in antibody titre over time for NCP (blue) and spike (orange) biomarkers. Shaded regions represent 95% credible intervals. (B) Inferred epidemic wave during the Delta wave, illustrating the temporal distribution of PCR-confirmed cases (black bars) and total inferred infections (pink shaded curve), with shaded uncertainty. (C) The estimated attack rate during the Delta wave, partitioned into PCR-confirmed cases (dark grey) and total inferred infections (pink). Error bars indicate 95% credible intervals. (D) The fitted logistic curve to the infection risk, showing the posterior probability of infection as a function of antibody titre at infection for NCP (blue) and spike (orange) biomarkers, with shaded regions representing 95% credible intervals. (E) The CPC from the fitted infection risk curve and (F) shows the relative risk for the same biomarkers.