serojump: A Bayesian tool for inferring infection timing and antibody kinetics from longitudinal serological data
Fig 2
Evaluation of model performance under varying levels of observational uncertainty.
(A) Accuracy in recovering antibody kinetics over various simulated observational errors, measured as the mean CRPS across all individuals of the observational model (B) Accuracy in recovering the epidemic curve over various simulated observational errors, assessed using the mean CRPS across all infection times (C, D) ROC curves for infection status predictions under simulated data with COP (C) and without COP (D) under different observational error (colour) (E) F1-scores for recovering infection status across different observational errors and model types (No COP and With COP). (F, G) Posterior means of the COP curves across various observational uncertainty values (blue colours) compared to the simulated function (dashed red line) (H) Accuracy in recovering the functional form for the COP, measured by Mean CRPS, across various levels of observational uncertainty for both model types (With COP and No COP).