Fitting a lattice model with local and global transmission to spread of a plant disease
Fig 3
Stochastic realisations of the lattice-fitted model using the joint posterior distributions.
(a) Time-courses from 100 stochastic simulation runs alongside the data (blue circles). (b) The month when infection arrives on each row. The colormap shows the proportion of trees infected from the data at each time-point, with blue colours meaning low prevalence and yellow colours high prevalence. The white dots are the the average of the 100 simulations for the median (8th) tree on the row being infected and the lines for the 4th and 11th trees.