Intra-vector infection dynamics challenge how to model the extrinsic incubation period for major arboviruses: dengue, Zika, and chikungunya
Fig 2
Inference of the duration distributions of the intra-vector infection dynamic stages for each scenario.
One scenario consists of a vector competence experiment on female mosquitoes of a specific genus, species, and geographical origin, exposed to a virus isolate of a given species at a single infectious dose (log10 FFU/mL) in the blood meal. A: dengue virus (DENV); B: Zika virus (ZIKV); C: chikungunya virus (CHIKV). (i): Proportion of selected models among those tested: IbetaDexpo, IbetaDbeta, IexpoDexpo, IexpoDexpo (these models differ based on the distribution used - either beta or exponential - for the infected and disseminated stages, as indicated by the first and second parts of their names, respectively). Scenarios with 5 or more days post-exposure (Dpe) are shown in color (one color per scenario), others are in gray. (ii): Average of the selected distributions in the infected stage for the main selected model (only scenarios with 5 or more Dpe are represented). (iii): Selected dynamics in the infected stage for the main selected model (only scenarios with 5 or more Dpe are represented). Dots: observed data; lines: mean dynamics; uncertainty ribbons (5%-95%): selected simulated dynamics.