Individual and population level uncertainty interact to determine the performance of outbreak surveillance systems
Fig 5
A schematic of the outbreak definition and alert detection system.
A) Measles incidence time series. B) Noise incidence time series. C) Observed time series of test positive cases according to a given testing scenario. The orange bands present in all 3 panels represent regions of the measles time series that meet the outbreak definition criteria. In panel C, the dark blue bands represent regions of the test positive time series that breach the alert threshold (the horizontal dashed line), and constitute an alert.