Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting
Fig 5
The proportion of all models (black) and best-in-class models (red) sMOA outperforms in MAE (top) and WIS (bottom) if the validation window ranged from August 2020 through the x-axis date.
sMOA outperforms the majority of all models and best-in-class models if the validation date cut off is between October 2020 and March 2023. Directly before October 2020, there was a dip in incidence case counts that sMOA failed to forecast accurately that caused the initial lower performance.