Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting
Fig 4
Direct comparisons between models from the ForecastHub and sMOA, using mean MAE (left) and mean WIS (right).
The error comparison between sMOA and a given model from the ForecastHub is only calculated for the dates for which forecasts from the given model were reported. That is, a given point represents the mean error metric for a model from the ForecastHub calculated over every date, state, and forecast horizon available for that model, plotted against the same mean metric calculated using sMOA on these same dates, states, and forecast horizons. Models beneath the diagonal black line were outperformed by sMOA. Four outlier models were removed for ease of visualization.