Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting
Fig 3
Nominal vs. empirical coverage for sMOA over every state in the US and over four forecast horizons (1w, 2w, 3w, 4w), plotted using a black line.
The dotted line indicates a perfect match between nominal and empirical coverages for reference. Over every forecast made for the data application to COVID-19, nominal and empirical coverages approximately match.