Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting
Fig 2
A demonstration of sMOA forecasting during the early weeks of the COVID-19 epidemic.
Black lines correspond to point forecasts; the orange lines correspond to the true observed value. The basic ensemble model of the ForecastHub (‘COVIDhub-4_week_ensemble’) and the basic persistence model (‘COVIDhub-baseline’) forecasts are provided for reference for the dates where forecasts were provided. The third model used for later comparisons, the ‘COVIDHub-trained_ensemble’, does not provide forecasts this early in the COVID-19 epidemic.