Synthetic method of analogues for emerging infectious disease forecasting
Fig 1
Recall k is the time series segment length and h is the largest forecast horizon. (a) Three fully observed synthetic time series in the library. (b) Synthetic time series segments
of length
. The first k time points in black; the last h time points in red. (c) Fully observed time series
. (d) Time series segment
of length k (i.e., the last k observations from the time series in (c)). (e) Compute the distance
between the observed time series segment
and the first k observations of each synthetic time series segment
in the library (i.e., the black points). (f) The point forecast is an aggregation (e.g., average) of the last h observations of the synthetic time series (i.e., the red points) with the smallest distances di.