Behavior-driven forecasts of neighborhood-level COVID-19 spread in New York City
Fig 3
Model fitting to neighborhood-level COVID-19 case data.
(A), Simulations using model parameters estimated for the period from March 1, 2020 to December 13, 2020. Simulated cases were aggregated to the city level and are compared with the daily confirmed cases in NYC (red line). The shaded blue area represents the 95% credible interval, obtained from 500 independent simulations, without adding the Gaussian observation error (i.e., it only reflects the uncertainty in the latent deterministic trajectories). The solid lines represent the median of those 500 trajectories. (B), Simulations in four representative neighborhoods in the Bronx (upper left), Brooklyn (upper right), Manhattan (lower left), and Queens (lower right). Maps display the geographical locations of these neighborhoods. The maps were created using PYTHON using the shapefile publicly available at https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data/tree/master/Geography-resources. This is a public repository by NYC Department of Health and Mental Hygiene. The term of use can be found here: https://github.com/nychealth/coronavirus-data.