The NOSTRA model: Coherent estimation of infection sources in the case of possible nosocomial transmission
Table 2
The arithmetic mean, and 0.025 and 0.975 quantiles of the Brier scores of the different models for each of the different estimation targets NOSTRA, Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with a full set of candidate individuals and all data. NOSTRA, No Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with no candidate individuals using Eq 17. Prevalence Prior sets the prior probability of nosocomiality to the true probability of nosocomiality in the dataset. Na ve prior sets the prior probability of community infection to 0.5 and the probability of every source within the hospital to , where n is the number of candidate individuals in the hospital. 96hr Categorisation assigns a nosocomiality probability of 0 to anything detected in the first 96 hours post-admission and a nosocomiality probability of 1 to everything else.