The NOSTRA model: Coherent estimation of infection sources in the case of possible nosocomial transmission
Fig 4
The calibration of NOSTRA versus references as measured by Brier score by the between admission and detection of infection.
The calibration of NOSTRA versus references as measured by Brier score for nosocomiality assessment (left), source identification (middle), and transmission chain identification (right) by the time between admission and detection of infection. Low scores indicate better calibration. The large red points correspond to the mean across simulations. NOSTRA - Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with a full set of candidate individuals and all data. NOSTRA - No Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with without any candidate individuals, using Eq 17. Prevalence Prior sets the prior probability of nosocomiality to the true probability of nosocomiality in that simulation run. Na ve prior sets the prior probability of nosocomiality to 0.5. 96hr Categorisation assigns a nosocomiality probability of 0 to anything detected in the first 96 hours post-admission and a nosocomiality probability of 1 to everything else.