The NOSTRA model: Coherent estimation of infection sources in the case of possible nosocomial transmission
Fig 3
The calibration of NOSTRA versus references as measured by Brier score.
The calibration of NOSTRA versus references as measured by Brier score for nosocomiality assessment (left), source identification (middle), and transmission chain identification (right). Low scores indicate better calibration. Points are coloured by the prevalence used in that simulation (see methods). The large black points correspond to the mean across simulations. NOSTRA, Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with a full set of candidate individuals and all data. NOSTRA, No Candidates is the NOSTRA model run with no candidate individuals using Eq 17. Prevalence Prior sets the prior probability of nosocomiality to the true probability of nosocomiality in the dataset. Na ve Prior sets the prior probability of community infection to 0.5 and the probability of every source within the hospital to , where n is the number of candidate individuals in the hospital. 96hr Categorisation assigns a nosocomiality probability of 0 to anything detected in the first 96 hours post-admission and a nosocomiality probability of 1 to everything else. The backets show the Bonferroni-corrected p-values of the one tailed paired Wilcoxon signed rank test that the Brier score of the NOSTRA model run with candidates is lower than each reference.