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Time-series modeling of epidemics in complex populations: Detecting changes in incidence volatility over time

Fig 3

Incidence and dispersion between Jan 4, 2020 and March 18, 2023, in large counties in the US.

a: Mean COVID-19 cases of the 144 US counties over time (total cases over the counties divided by total population over the counties multiplied by 1,000). b: Mean of the 144 US counties over time. NAs produced by the method (see text) were removed from the average. c: over time for each of the 144 counties, where county is the y-axis. d: over time for each of the 144 counties. e: Expected value of under the null model, assuming a reporting rate of 0.5 for each county. f: LRT p-values over time for each county.

doi: https://doi.org/10.1371/journal.pcbi.1012882.g003