Multivariate resilience indicators to anticipate vector-borne disease outbreaks: A West Nile virus case-study
Fig 2
(A) Number of infected birds A over time, for two stochastic simulations as examples of the perturbation-recovery experiments in a case of high (red) and low (blue) resilience. The points represent the observations of infected birds over time, and the dotted lines indicate the fitted lines used to calculate the return rate to the disease-free state (see Methods). (B) Average recovery time (solid line) and 95% confidence interval (dotted line) (in days) to the disease-free state after perturbing the system by introducing infected birds for different values of R0. (C) Average recovery time (solid line) and 95% confidence interval (dotted line) (in days) to the disease-free state after perturbing the system by introducing infected mosquitoes for different values of R0. For B and C, the recovery time is defined as the reciprocal of the return rate, assuming exponential decay, and is calculated over 1000 replicates.