A framework for counterfactual analysis, strategy evaluation, and control of epidemics using reproduction number estimates
Fig 6
A) Daily confirmed cases over the UIUC campus with different isolation rates. The fixed weekly isolation rates of the hypothetical spreading scenario are drawn from {0%, 10%, 20%, …, 90%} and {100%, 120%, …, 180%, 200%}. Higher isolation rates will result in relatively smoother and flatter curves in terms of outbreak. The shape of the brighter area also indicates that a higher isolation rate will lead to lower spikes, while these lower spikes will also be further delayed. B) Daily confirmed cases over Purdue campus with different isolation rates. The weekly isolation rates for asymptomatic cases are drawn from {0%, 10%, 20%, …, 90%} and {100%, 120%, …, 180%, 200%}. The daily confirmed cases of the hypothetical outbreak at Purdue are significantly lower than those on the UIUC campus, due to the existence of a voluntary testing-for-isolation strategy. Higher isolation rates generate relatively smoother and flatter curves in terms of confirmed cases.