Antiviral capacity of the early CD8 T-cell response is predictive of natural control of SIV infection: Learning in vivo dynamics using ex vivo data
Fig 4
Early cumulative suppressive capacity is a marker of natural control.
Dynamics of (A) viremia and (B) suppressive capacity predicted for virtual patients using our best-fit model. Trajectories for fifty controllers and fifty progressors are shown. Black dashed line indicates 400 copies mL-1. Correlation between set-point viral load and cumulative suppressive capacity S28 (see text) for (C) 100000 simulated individuals and (D) the 16 macaques studied. The black curve in (C) is a LOESS regression curve to visualize the inverse correlation. (E) The fraction of virtual individuals achieving control (gray bars) or experiencing progressive disease (red bars) as a function of S28. Each bar has of width 0.1 units of S28. The black curve is a fit of the estimated fractions to a first-order Hill function (Methods). The blue line represents the minimum S28 for >95% controllers, with control defined as set-point viral load <400 copies mL-1. Spearman’s ρ was calculated for assessing the correlations.