Evaluating targeted COVID-19 vaccination strategies with agent-based modeling
Fig 6
Non-Quarantining Strategy Dominance.
As in Fig 5, columns represent vaccine supply scenarios and rows represent disease outcomes. Each row of pixels in a panel corresponds to one simulation replicate. Color indicates which strategy would prevent the most cumulative incidence had it been pursued up to that day. Replicates are ordered first by which strategy has the highest advantage in the most replicates, then by the magnitude of that advantage. Advantage is calculated each day as the additional prevented deaths versus the next-best strategy, and the overall advantage of a strategy within a replicate is the sum across all days. Relatively low advantage is mostly transparent in this figure, high advantage is mostly opaque. Strain dominance is indicated in the date band at bottom for alpha, delta, and omicron variants. Against infections (top row), the ring-based approach is typically preferable over the time period considered, with a brief interval during omicron where random vaccine distribution would have been preferred for high-supply scenarios. For deaths, the risk-prioritized strategy generally dominates within a few months of introduction, though for low-supply settings other strategies are preferred in a minority of replicates. See Figs K-M in S2 Text for strategies with quarantining, as well as without any seasonal forcing, but in summary: the same qualitative trends are present, i.e., the vaccine distribution strategy preferences suggested by the model are independent of both quarantining and seasonality assumptions.