Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates
Table 5
Performance of nowcasts of Rt on incomplete line list data of a simulated first wave scenario using different approaches to account for missing onset dates.
Shown is the performance of Rt nowcasts in four different phases of the epidemic wave, at different lags of a selected week (same week [0–6 days], one week after [7–13 days], and two weeks after [14–20 days]). Nowcasts were obtained through i) a stepwise approach using an independent imputation step, ii) a stepwise approach using a backward imputation step, and iii) a generative approach using an integrated missingness model. Performance is measured by the weighted interval score (WIS, lower is better), shown is the average score over 50 scenario runs () and the percentage of runs in which each approach achieved the best score (%best).