Generative Bayesian modeling to nowcast the effective reproduction number from line list data with missing symptom onset dates
Fig 5
Nowcasts of Rt on incomplete line list data of a simulated first wave scenario using different approaches of accounting for missing onset dates.
Shown are the true Rt (black) and point nowcasts with 95% credible intervals (CrI) in four different phases of the epidemic wave, obtained through i) a stepwise approach using an independent imputation step (green), ii) a stepwise approach using a backward imputation step (blue), and iii) a generative approach using an integrated missingness model (red). All approaches used a generative model for nowcasting. Shown below each phase is the weighted interval score (WIS, lower is better) for Rt nowcasts of each approach during a selected week (grey shade) over 50 scenario runs (see Table 5 for exact figures). Colored bars show average scores, decomposed into penalties for underprediction (crosshatch), dispersion (circles), and overprediction (stripes). The horizontal bar below shows the percentage of times each approach achieved the lowest WIS out of 50 scenario runs, respectively. Results are shown for nowcasts made at different lags from the selected week (vertical dotted lines), i. e. at the end of the selected week (top row), one week later (middle row), and two weeks later (bottom row).