Inferring country-specific import risk of diseases from the world air transportation network
Fig 6
Correlation analysis: Disease arrival time vs. the effective model distance.
Each model’s import probability is converted to an effective distance dM(i|n0) = −ln(p(i|n0)) with n0 as the outbreak country of the respective disease. The correlation results C(tA, dM) with the arrival time tA(i) of the disease in the target country i are grouped by model (A) and by the disease (B). As comparison distances, the correlation of the geodesic, geodesic path (on the effective shortest path tree) and the effective distance with tA are shown. Each dot represents a correlation result of the 21 considered outbreaks (H1N1 in 2009, COVID-19 in 2020 and the spread of 18 of its variants in the years 2020–2022).